TEMPERATURE TREND 2017

NEWS BEFORE THE NEWS

TEMPERATURE

The national average temperature indicates a variety of political, social, and life-style trends.  During warm trends governments are more centralized.  International affairs take precedence over national ones.  Federal regulations increase.  Prices rise.  And moral decadence is on the rise.  During cool trends, individualism replaces group or state control.  National affairs become more important than foreign ones.  Prices fall and free enterprise reigns.

The graph below depicts annual, average temperatures in the United States from 1895-2016.  The dark ‘trend’ line in the middle is a 4-year moving average of the data.  Notice that the trend has been going up since the 1970s.  The trend-line has been above the average from 1930-1947 and since 1986.  The extreme high temperatures resulted in the Dust Bowl of the 30s and the extreme, record-breaking weather patterns to date that first emerged in the 1990s. Weird weather patterns will continue as global warming marches on. The current long-term warming trend is expected to rise by 1.1 – 2.9 degrees – and to as much as 6.4 degrees – by the end of the century according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  [Read more about long-range climate change in the article “THE NEW WORLD AGE.”]

Temperature1895-2016

 It is worth noting that although temperatures are at historic highs (note the three tall peaks above 540 that have occurred since 1998) the trend is moving down.  This suggests that the record heat spell may be ending, or perhaps it signifies a short cooling before continuing to climb higher.  Time will tell.

The second graph is a closer view of the current temperature trend.

Temperature1980-2016

WHAT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TREND FORETELLS

Almost every year since the winter solstice Sun first touched the rim of the galactic equator in 1980 the weather has been berserk.  2007 and 2008 were freakishly weather record breaking.  2009 was no better and the frigid winter into 2010 was felt deep into the south and across the world.  The January 2010 earthquake that devastated Haiti killing tens of thousands is further testimony to the destructive nature of the 36-year New Age transition.  2011 has been almost a mirror image of 2010.  It has been another wild year of record-breaking weather throughout much of the nation.  America experienced at least 12 major natural disasters in 2011: Hurricane Irene, Midwest flooding, the Mississippi River flood, drought in the Southern Plains and Southwest, repeated tornadoes in the Midwest and Southeast and Ohio Valley, and the Groundhog Day blizzard, the massive snow in Alaska and record snowstorms in the Northeast.  2012 was even worse with massive tornadoes, drought, heat, and storms, even a late season hurricane named Sandy slammed New York City.  All of this is largely due to the overall long warm trend seen in the first graph and for the fact that the Winter Solstice is aligned with the galactic equator (the New Age).  The summer months were brutal for much of the nation, especially in the Northeast.  The winter of 2013-14 and 2014-15 was particularly bad as the high latitude arctic jet stream bent sharply southward sending cold front after cold front of arctic air throughout the Midwest, East, and Southern states.  California and the Southeast meanwhile lost their usual moisture and suffer a devastating drought.  It has been the worst drought in California history.  That state is a major world producer of produce.  Numerous violent storms sweep over the country in 2015.  The jet stream curved far south bringing arctic temperature to parts of the Deep South and record snowstorms and low temperatures repeatedly froze the Northeast.  2016 continued this devastating trend with storm after storm ravaging the central states and especially the Northeast.

A PLANETARY CONNECTION

I have found that hard angle aspects between Jupiter and Saturn usually trigger a shift in short cool to warm trends.  The Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in 2000 corresponded with a short cool trend 2000-2003.  Warm 2004-2005 followed the first Jupiter/Saturn square, but the last two in June and October 2006 brought the short cool trend of 2006-2008.  The Jupiter/Saturn opposition from May 2010 to March 2011 corresponded with the warm 2009-2012 trend.  Cool 2013 trend ended in 2015 when the first Jupiter square Saturn aspect formed.  March and May of 2016 are the second and third square correlating with a continuation of the short warm trend.  The next conjunction between Jupiter/Saturn is not until 2020.

RECENT SHORT WARM AND COOL TRENDS

Major developments during the relatively cool period of 2007-2008 (see second graph) correlated with plans to downsize the military and make government agencies and regulations more efficient.  In the 2009-2012 short warm trend government continued to grow, the debt grew, and civil liberties were carved away.  In January 2012 the government, for instance, announced that tighter cyber net security is needed in the private sector involving key industries like energy, communication, and transportation raising concerns that employee data might be vulnerable to government snooping.  Key clauses in the Homeland Security bill have been extended so that surveillance between a foreign source and an American can be done without a warrant.  More and more states authorized the use of drone aircraft in emergencies.  And gun control came to the forefront again in the wake of the Newtown, Conn. Grade School shootings.  President Obama’s mammoth health care bill was a major implementation during this period.  The government mandated program essentially controls not only medicine but the funding for it.  As a result, the national debt grew, taxes were raised, and new hidden fees connected with the health care bill expanded the scope of government.

The rather dramatic drop in temperature in 2013 brought a halt to large social projects, although efforts to stop “Obamacare” by the Republican Party were unsuccessful.  Government expenditures continued to rise and so would have intrusions by the IRS and NSA if it were not for the Snowden leaks.  The U.S. continued to wind down its military involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq.  The President ignored State Department environmental reports stating that the Keystone oil pipeline from Canada is relatively safe.  These developments all point to a more conservative, cool attitude in 2013 that has continued through 2014.  The short cool trend was reflected in voter sentiment in the November midterm elections.  The Republicans won a sizable majority in both the House and the Senate.  A cool 2014 also translated into continual congressional gridlock over aggressive presidential directives.

President Obama’s actions, or lack thereof, dovetail nicely with the colder weather.  He has been reluctant to confront Russia over Ukraine.  His foreign policy is one of inaction and hesitation (if not uncertainty).  He has restrained the military in fighting ISIS, refuses to supply the Kurds with weapons, and ignores Syria so as not to anger Iran while a nuclear agreement is being crafted.  Another political twist is the executive order allowing 5 million illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S.  Cold phase politics would seal the borders and limit immigration.  The Republicans will try and fail to defund Obama’s new immigration policy.  The program may still be dismantled by the 26 states that are bringing suit against the administration for the president’s questionable legal authority to alter immigration law.

The rapidly rising temperatures in 2015 led to massive government over-reach and abuse.  The IRS scandal and Hillary Clinton’s misuse of government e-mails on her private server led to an FBI investigation – at least 22 of the messages during her stint as Secretary of State are deemed classified.  Her shrug of the shoulder response and blatant lying has not gone unnoticed by the public.  Charges of illegal handling of classified material can still be brought against her but warm 2015 rules against this possibility.  Warm periods are associated with moral decadence, along with sexual excess and promiscuity.  Witness the widespread transgender movement, Bruce Jenner and all.  The start of the 2016 election season – the primaries – is also decadent with Donald Trump’s insults, curses, and crude enunciation of presidential policy.  On the Democratic side is Hillary the power hungry liar pitted against even more liberal socialist Bernie Sanders.  The country as a whole though remained true to the rise in temperature: pessimistic of government no matter the party.  The biggest deal for President Obama was the nuclear freeze agreement with Iran.  Again this was autocratic on his part since the deal did not involve a vote by Congress and is not a treaty.  Iran will likely cheat and attempt to get a nuclear weapon before the 10-year time limit expires.  Even if cooler heads prevail and they postpone development of the bomb, they will eventually acquire one.  Obama has allowed Iran a pathway to the nuclear club all the while greasing their power by lifting sanctions and releasing over $100 billion in frozen funds.  This is warm weather politics of the worse kind.

THE CURRENT SHORT TREND

Warm 2016 continued the liberal and high-handed agenda of Barack Obama.  By-passing Congress as usual, Obama passes more executive orders, being unable to craft and pass bipartisan bills, in hopes of securing his legacy.  The November election, however, was a stunning repudiation of Democratic Party policies.  Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton was not only surprising – it was awe inspiring.  The Republican Party won a majority in the House and the Senate, plus a majority of governorships and state representatives.  Clearly the people in small town America want change – radical change – from the party politics of old.  Donald Trump has promised to shake up government bureaucracy and “drain the swamp” of corruption, waste, and inefficiency.  His agenda is bold and his cabinet composed of highly successful leaders.  Trump has promised to restore conservative principles and “make America great again.”  His approach is likely to be warm – firm and controlling – as he deals with entrenched bureaucrats and uncooperative foreign leaders.

Donald Trump is not a career politician.  He is a maverick businessman.  His unconventional style has shaken the Washington establishment as he promises to be a president of the people.  The reforms planned for government, foreign affairs, and the economy are profound.  His vision for the country is reminiscent of COOL weather politics and not that of the short-warm trend (within the long-hot trend) that we are currently experiencing.

Trump’s approach is to return government to a constitutional system and away from the tyranny of the left.  He wants to streamline government, reduce waste and inefficiency, eliminate redundancy and save tax payer dollars.  These are cool weather ideas: decentralization versus centralization.  His focus is on “America first” with restricting illegal immigration and punishing trade transgressions: cool nationalism verses warm internationalism.  Cool trends stimulate individualism, conservatism, and social reforms.  Donald Trump is indeed a radical reformer.  How well he will be able to carry out his cool weather agenda in a warm environment is yet to be seen.  Perhaps he will be aided by several cool years during his presidency.  Nevertheless, several important warm phase international issues face him from the onset: trade agreements, immigration reform, defeating ISIS, Iranian nuclear deal, North Korean ballistic missile program, and the expansionist designs by China and Russia.

THE MEANING OF WARM

High temperatures equate to widespread fears of government takeover, natural disasters, international war, and the rise of totalitarianism, socialism, and extremist movements.  President Obama and his liberal, socialistic agenda came into office in 2009 on the promise to “fundamentally change America.”  He kept his promise by redistributing wealth through healthcare legislation, taxation, government stimulus plans (beneficiaries primarily being pro-Democrat supporters), job creation efforts (mostly public sector positions), corporate bailouts, tax payer funded services to illegal immigrants, and through a myriad of executive orders meant to bypass Congress.  Only two of his eight years in office have been cool!

THE LONG WARM TREND

Notice in the first graph that a long warm trend started in 1969 even though temperatures did not go much above the average until after 1986.  The long warm trend indicates an increase in totalitarianism, bigger and stronger centralized governments, more socialistic programs, the spread of international wars and political scandals, and the rise of autocratic nations like Iran, Russia, and China.  The cancerous spread of ISIS and other radical Muslim terrorist organizations is further testimony to the higher temperatures.

Take a look back at how previous long warm trends affected America.  During the warm 1880s an economically depressed America witnessed a surge in prejudice and Know-Nothing activism in response to rising immigration.  The long warm trend of 1918-1934 witnessed the Great Depression, a major revival of the Ku Klux Klan, and the rise of Fascism in Europe and Japanese Imperialism in Asia.  The economically stagnant decades, between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, boosted white supremacist groups, anti-government militias, church arsonists, and domestic terrorists.   It was also during this current long warm period (1969-present) that Iraq pursued its aggression against Kuwait, which started the Gulf wars and the rise of Muslim terrorism.  The Middle East deadlock, especially the one in Afghanistan, promises to be as much a wasted effort for the U.S. as it was to Russia and Great Britain.

The rapid rise in warm temperature that began in 1986 is reminiscent of the rise of Fascism in the 1920s and 1930s.  ISIS is the greatest threat to world peace.  Add Iran if the agreement fails to curtail their race for the bomb; or, if after the 10-15 year prohibition on nuclear development Iranian leaders still chant “Death to America,” fund terrorist groups, and aspire to regional supremacy.  North Korea is another dangerous wild card in the long warm trend with the bizarre and paranoid behavior of its leader.  These threats aside, ISIS is the immediate monster.  Their flag and fighters dressed in black behave with the ruthlessness of Nazi thugs.  Their rise in Syria and Iraq seriously destabilizes many Mideast countries.  Libya and Yemen too have largely fallen to radical forces while the seeds of ISIS spread to France, Great Britain, Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, and beyond.  The tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the civil war in Syria also destabilize their host countries because most Syrian Muslims fail to, or do not wish to, integrate into a new society.  It is an international plight of epic high temperature proportions.

Governments will continue to become more powerful and centralized during this warm period.  New dictatorships will arise like in Venezuela.  Other totalitarian regimes like Syria, North Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and increasingly Russia will cement their power, resist reform movements, and become more absolute in their world-view.  The U.S. Federal government will also grow larger and more powerful, reducing the civil rights of American citizens in order to better fight and prepare for domestic terrorists acts.  Government scandals like those involving the VA and IRS are also likely to continue in greater number.  And finally, over-reach by the Obama administration regarding immigration and healthcare reform threaten to weaken America from within.  Indeed, no president has usurped so much authority in a bid to “fundamentally change America” as Barack Obama.  His executive orders and departmental regulations (like the 2015 ATFE proposal to ban .223 ammunition and the FCC regulation takeover of the Internet) to expand government influence are a backdoor ploy around Congress.  The audacity of the Obama administration in instigating government social reforms without the approval of Congress hinges on constitutionality.  America is increasingly becoming more centralized and socialized.

Prices will rise (see Inflation Warning and the War in Iraq in the articles section).  Public works projects will be called upon to stimulate slow sectors of the economy and bolster political votes.  Large business monopolies will continue to form.  Government regulations will increase. Moral decadence, sexual promiscuity, a lethargic populace, and declining health will add to the nature of this long warm trend.  And, yet, art will flourish, team sports will be popular, great discoveries and insights will take place by scientists, inventors, and novel thinkers.  Abstract theology and mysticism will prevail in the philosophical realm.  It is by no means a lost cause, only a change in perspective – a natural and inevitable law of life.

THE DANGER OF INTERNATIONALISM IN THE LONG WARM TREND

The current long-warm trend has undermined a long-standing model of sovereignty.  It has become popular for international legal activists to challenge the notion of national sovereignty.  The Westphalian model of sovereignty – which dates back to 1648 – states that an independent state is not subject to external control over its internal affairs without its consent.  This means that democratic national sovereignty is based on laws that the citizens of a country pass.  Modern-day internationalists, however, would like to impose legal mandates on a nation without popular consent.  Because this conflicts with the democratic model of government, international law has often been made by way of treaties. Academics, lawyers, and judges who challenge the Westphalian model view it as an antiquated concept.  They would argue that international agreements automatically confer legal rights on individuals that may go against the laws of the individuals’ own countries.  Some further argue that international law is not limited to what is agreed on by nations in treaties or accepted through widespread practice; they claim it also involves certain “evolving” universal principles.

Universalism, totalitarianism, centralized-state control are most prevalent during long-warm trends.  Warm trends threaten democracies.  For example, the UN Human Rights Council has passed resolutions urging states to adopt laws combating the “defamation of religions.”  This would prohibit the healthy open discussion about religious and political matters that is protected under the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.  The UN has also held a conference to examine gun-control provisions, ones that would be at odds with the Second Amendment.  The UN also passed a resolution calling for a moratorium on capital punishment with “a view to abolishing the death penalty,” even though the U.S. Supreme Court has repeatedly upheld it.

Fortunately, the U.S. Supreme Court has not agreed with these accords.  The Court holds that international law must be made with the common consent of the citizens.  In recent cases, the Court has held that the United States’ treaty obligations may not always take precedence over domestic legal rules and procedures.  International treaty obligations are diplomatic commitments that generally do not become binding domestic law without the consent of Congress.

A one-world government, i.e., universalism, will continue to be a threat to democratic nations in the current long-warm trend.  It will take the next long-cool trend to reverse the march toward globalism.