NEWS BEFORE THE NEWS

Precipitation

National average precipitation is an accurate indicator of the economy.  It is often a ‘leading indicator’ of what is to come.  Wet trends correspond with bull markets and a growing economy.  Dry trends correspond with bear markets and a shrinking economy.

The graph depicts the precipitation cycle since detailed records were recorded.  Pay attention to the peaks and troughs of the light black trend line in the middle (7-year moving average).

THE CURRENT CONDITION

The peak of wet conditions in 2008 and dry conditions afterward led to the Great Recession during Barrack Obama first year in office.  His two terms were not stellar in terms of the economy as evidenced by the slow upward arc of the precipitation trend line.  Luckily wet 2015 helped the economy briefly until drier conditions resumed in 2016-17.  The lackluster economy in Obama’s last years in office helped Donald Trump in the 2016 election win a surprising victory over Hillary Clinton.  The economy responded dramatically in wet 2018 and 2019 based on Trump tax cuts, business regulation reduction, trade dispute resolutions, and other socially conservative policies.  Dry 2020 ushers in a new Democrat president, Joe Biden, with his party controlling both the House and Senate.

Joe Biden’s policies and the sharp drop in precipitation in 2020 spelled a dismal year for the economy.  The Moon’s declination in 2020 was near mid-range (23.5⁰) in Cancer – a sign of unfavorable, dry weather conditions.  Gross Domestic Product responded accordingly by decreasing -3.4%.  A leveling off of drier conditions during 2021 helped the economy grow by a robust 5.7%.  Jupiter/Neptune conjunctions, like the one in 2022, have usually been associated with wet years like 2021.  2022 however was terribly dry resulting in the GDP rising to only 1.9%.  As a result of the sudden dryness in 2022 economic conditions in terms of high inflation and interest rates continued to worry consumers.  Precipitation rose in 2023 but remained over ½ inch below average.  The stock market responded favorably to the rise in moisture while the economy in general grew 2.5%.  Wetter should continue as the lunar north node moves into Aries during its greatest declination in 2025 and indeed we find ample rainfall in 2024.  The economy performed well in 2024 and during much drier 2025.  The sudden reverse from rising wet to significantly drier conditions in 2025 however is not a favorable sign for upcoming financial conditions.