Financial Forecast 2022
NEWS BEFORE THE NEWS
2022 FINANCIAL FORECAST
Stock prices are a neat reflection of public sentiment. The rise of business brings exuberance, in the fall despair. Public confidence, spending, and investment are high as the market goes up. Pessimism, hoarding, and conservatism prevail as the market turns down.
The stock market did exceptionally well in 2021. The DJIA rose 18.7% compared with 7.3% in 2020 based on weekly closes. There were three prominent weekly high points during the year: May 7, August 13, and a new high November 5. There were also three low points during the year that did not move into correction territory: January 29, June 18, and December 3.
LAST YEAR’S PREDICTION
The stock market should do exceptionally well as the Covid-19 epidemic winds down. Now that vaccines are being administered the economic horizon looks bright. There is, however, trouble ahead in terms of a bubble bursting or some calamity that unnerves investors. Expect the market to rise to a peak in April or May 2021 [correct]. Caution flags should be flying in the summer as a steep sell-off is indicated between or near July and September [see below]. The market may then resume its upward momentum and finish the year with a net gain [correct]. The chart could look somewhat like 2020 [not even close; it was much better than 2020].
[The stock market finally produced the expected dramatic sell-off but not near July or September as predicted but in late November or more likely in January 2022. A new variant of Covid-19 – Omicron – emerged first in Africa and rapidly spread beyond the continent igniting fears of widespread business shut-downs, slower spending and growth, and a worsening supply chain. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are also high with Russian forces poised to strike a takeover of Eastern Ukraine. China meanwhile continues to probe, provoke, and intimidate Taiwan with verbal threats and numerous large incursions of Taiwanese airspace by Chinese fighters, bombers, surveillance, and refueling jets. An impending invasion worries the world and the markets in particular. The tell-tale astrological trigger for the Wall Street sell-off was Mars opposite Uranus (an indicator of tension and unexpected developments) near the lunar eclipse of November 19, 2021. These two planets are volatile companions often accompanying war and economic shocks like the one induced by the Omicron variant.]
THIS YEAR’S PREDICTION
Inflation fears will cause the FED to raise interest rates and, hence, put downward pressure on the stock market. The continued presence of the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain issues and employee shortages are also detrimental to market gain. The big picture from a cosmic standpoint is also somewhat grim. Before elaborating on this point a word about inflation is in order. The rapid rise in prices that started during the last half of 2021 is not temporary as the government claims. Inflation is indicated by the Jupiter and Neptune conjunction in April. On top of this is the long-term inflationary Saturn/Neptune conjunction in 2026 that sets off a much higher inflationary spiral through 2034. The 9.28-year cycle in inflation also peaked in 2021. The next peak is in 2030 marking the severest year of rising prices. These converging planetary influences, coupled with rampant and irresponsible government spending, spell economic trouble ahead.
On a positive note the phase relationships of Jupiter/Saturn and Jupiter/Uranus point to better prospects in 2022. This room for optimism is dampened however by an economic crisis indicated by the April Jupiter/Neptune conjunction. The Saturn/Uranus relationship is down and the Jupiter/Pluto phase reaches a low around May. On top of this is the orbital position of Uranus on its north node – another down indication.
Sunspots are on the rise but not yet ‘above 50’ per yearly average. The next sunspot high and thus the next super-high market are expected near 2025.
A recession is not clearly indicated but steep sell-offs and rapid gains are in the stars for 2022.
A CLOSER LOOK
The stock market and economy should do very well in January due to the Sun/Mercury conjunction in Capricorn. The market tends to rise 25 days prior to the conjunction (1/23/22). The 8-month cycle is also pointing to a high near 1/9. The high point near 1/23 may be cut short however by a Fibonacci spiral that points down near 1/27*, augmented by a monthly low near 1/23. This may be a sharp downturn with some relief offered by the 5-month cycle that peaks 2/11. *The Fibonacci spiral is the fifth in a series that traces each of the last four major market downturns.
Mars is coming around to a conjunction with Pluto on March 3 that has correlated with a market top and a spectacular drop thereafter 75% of the time. A word of caution: the expected peak and break in prices can precede the exact conjunction by a couple of months. The market may peak in early January with a steep sell-off later in the month. A brief rally near February 11 is possible but not enough to shake off the lost capital at this point. The severe downturn is likely to topple again in March and continue to be down through April into May – the April Jupiter/Neptune conjunction and the 5-month cycle low of 4/29 coincide.
May is a wildcard as the 1-year cycle exerts upward pressure near the 12th while the 8-month cycle points down on the same date. The Mars/Jupiter conjunction on the 22nd may be mute this time but don’t count on it. An unpredictable swing one way or the other is likely.
By mid-July the market should do well, then comes another dicey period in September when the 1-year and 8-month are competing. A slower cycle tends to outdo a faster one so continued gain is more possible.
A precarious situation takes place near the lunar eclipse of November 8 because Mars is in opposition with Uranus on the 11th! A sudden market shock and drop is expected at this time.
The market is projected to rally near mid-December but pressure to collapse builds as the 36-month cycle achieves a bottom near 1/23/2023.